Up-Sell Ad Campaign for Intuit QuickBooks
UCSD · Customer Analytics · Dec 2025
Analyzed clickstream behavior of 1M QuickBooks users to build an uplift model that identified which users would respond to an up-sell campaign vs. those who would convert organically. The model informed a precision-targeted second wave that generated $380K in incremental profit.
$380K
Incremental profit
1M
Users analyzed
4
User segments identified
Approach
Used causal inference techniques to separate the treatment effect of the ad campaign from organic conversion. Built uplift trees to segment users into persuadables, sure things, lost causes, and sleeping dogs — then only targeted the persuadables in the second wave.
Impact
The second-wave campaign, informed by the uplift model, achieved significantly higher ROI than the blanket first wave by avoiding wasted spend on users who would have converted anyway and users who were unreachable regardless of targeting.
Tools & Technologies
Topics